Wimbledon - Analysing the Australian Open draw

ANALYSING THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW

By Alexandra Willis at Melbourne Park

The Australian Open is the tennis soothsayer's proverbial nightmare. It takes place with just a handful of tournaments preceding it, following a six to eight week break during which how well a player prepares is essentially up to that player. But no matter the volume of gym and court work, and it is true that he and she that prepares best usually does well in Melbourne, there is never quite any telling who is going to do what in any given situation.

And so pundits and pragmatists cling to the Australian Open draw all the more as a way of working out who has the potential to do well, which player has the path of least resistance. Although that doesn't often help either.

That is certainly the case with this year's ladies singles draw. The 2012 Australian Open is anyone's to win, be it part of the Kim, Serena or Maria show, the ongoing development of the Petra, Caroline and Victoria series, or, the annointing of someone new?

All eyes, naturally, are on the most recent Grand Slam champion in the women's game, Australia's very own Sam Stosur, who has drawn Sorana Cirstea in the opening round. Stosur is sitting in the bottom quarter of the draw, with the likes of Nadia Petrova, Marion Bartoli, Petra Kvitova, Serena Williams seeded to stand in her way of becoming the first Australian to triumph at Melbourne Park. "I think her draw is as good as she can ask for," John McEnroe said at the draw ceremony. "I'm impressed with how she moved on the court at the US Open. She can beat anybody."

Stosur of course beat Serena that hot and humid evening in New York, a Serena who, despite rolling her ankle in Brisbane, is looking the fittest she has for some years. Following a first round against Tamira Paszek, Serena's draw shouldn't prove too taxing up until the quarter-finals, when she could come up against either Maria Sharapova, Sabine Lisicki or Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Many punters' eyes are on Kvitova, the young Czech who is inches away from the world No.1 ranking, for the title. Conditions will be key for the 21-year-old Wimbledon Champion, who has admitted she doesn't play well "in the windy." She starts against Vera Dushevina.

Not forgetting, of course, defending champion Kim Clijsters, back on the court after her injury scare in Brisbane, and the likes of Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki too.

Predicting the champion from the men's singles draw,, it would seem, should be far more straightforward. With the run of seven consecutive Murray/Nadal and Federer/Djokovic halves finally brought to an end, meaning Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal contest the Australian Open on opposite sides of the draw for the first time in their playing history, once again 2012 seems destined to be a predictable fight between the four major lions.

Novak Djokovic, top seed and defending champion, opens against Italian Paolo Lorenzi at the top of the draw, with Andy Roddick (provided he gets through a battle of big serving against Robin Haase to start) a potential fourth round opponent, followed by Murray in the semi-finals.

Murray himself will have a handful in young American buck Ryan Harrison, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will have to overcome the powerful Denis Istomin. Fernando Verdasco also faces Bernard Tomic in a fascinating first round clash.

Another one to watch in the top half of the draw is one of the tales of 2011, Milos Raonic, who thundered through from qualifying to quarter-finals last year. He could meet Roddick or Lleyton Hewitt in the third round, before coming up against Djokovic in the fourth. "Raonic is one of the guys who has the chance to be a Grand Slam winner," McEnroe said.

Down in the bottom half of the draw, the first major since Roland Garros 2005 that Nadal and Federer will feature in the same half, both multi-Grand Slam champions begin their tournament against qualifiers. Federer has the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro in his quarter, while Nadal has the ever-threatening John Isner.