We are all guilty of it: the draw is made and our eyes are drawn to the established superstars and champions. Who does Carlos Alcaraz play first? What does Coco Gauff’s path to the final look like? We are simple souls.
Yet if every tournament played out according to the seedings and the rankings, tennis would be a very dull sport. The fact that the first week of Wimbledon is usually littered with upsets and dramas is what keeps us all on the edge of our seats every year. The form book be damned: we all love a giant-killer wrecking the usual order.
So who is likely to do some damage as the first few rounds unfold? In theory, it could be anyone. The grass court season is short and there are not many who feel truly at home on the green stuff. And in the early rounds when the courts are slick – and the nerves are jangling – anything can happen.
By rights, Alexander Bublik (main picture) should not be here at all. He was on the verge of retirement after Wimbledon last year – quite simply, he wasn’t enjoying his tennis any more – but he stuck at it. No matter that he could count his match wins on the fingers of one hand for the next eight months, he stuck at it.
Then he reached the quarter-finals at Roland-Garros, his best Grand Slam result. He followed that up with the title in Halle, beating Jannik Sinner in the second round and Daniil Medvedev in the final. He could barely believe it and was, as he put it, “beyond words”.
Then again, his thumping serve, power from the baseline and deft touch with a drop shot has always made him an impossible opponent. Or it has when his confidence is high and his mind is focused. And his confidence is at a new high now.
He plays Jaume Munar in the first round and could face Jack Draper in the third round. The last time those two met, Bublik won in four sets at Roland-Garros and Draper admitted that he did not know what to do against the big man from Kazakhstan.
No one knows quite how long Gael Monfils will be coming back to SW19. He is now 38 and a lifetime of flinging himself around every court on almost every continent has taken its toll on his body. But if he is fit enough to walk on court, he is ready to perform. And he is a showman.
Opening up against his countryman, Ugo Humbert, if he could get through a couple of rounds, he would face Ben Shelton. Shelton is younger and faster than Monfils but Monfils loves a big stage and a full house. That could be very interesting.
Winning takes talent, touch and tenacity. And just a little bit of luck. Arthur Rinderknech made the most of his luck when he squeaked into the main draw at Queen’s Club as a lucky loser from the qualifying competition. Grabbing his second chance with both hands, he reached the quarter-finals. If he catches Alexander Zverev off guard in the opening round, he could be off and running again.
In the ladies' draw, it is a little harder to identify potential upsets, particularly when the likes of Naomi Osaka and Ons Jabeur are not seeded.
Osaka is a hard court player by trade – that is where she has won her three Grand Slam titles – and grass is not her happiest hunting ground. But opening up against Talia Gibson, a qualifier from Australia, she could face Qinwen Zheng, the No.5 seed, in the second round. That is if Zheng gets that far.
The Chinese has not won a match here since 2022 and faces Katerina Siniakova in the first round, the same Siniakova who beat her here two years ago at the same stage. If that bit of the draw opens up early, anything seems possible.
Jabeur sits in that same quarter and while it is two years since she reached her second final here, she knows the grass, she loves Wimbledon and she has a wealth of experience. She opens against Viktoriya Tomova and, if she builds up a head of steam, could face Diana Shnaider in the third round. Schnaider reached the quarter-finals at Queen’s Club two weeks ago and the third round here last year.
And, finally, never forget Danielle Collins. She may not be a grass court aficionado but she is a fighter. Oh, my, is she a fighter.
The American starts against Camila Osorio and could face Iga Swiatek in the third round.
Swiatek has had, by her standards, a poor year (she has not won a title since Roland-Garros last summer) and she has never done herself justice in SW19. If Collins has the bit between her teeth, she will fancy her chances against Swiatek.
Let the upsets begin.