How do you solve a problem like Aryna Sabalenka? That is the conundrum for British No.1 Emma Raducanu and her support team ahead of her third round match against comfortably the world’s best at The Championships on Friday.
It’s a rematch of their Indian Wells clash last year, which Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-5.
The twice Australian Open champion hasn’t lost a set so far, coming through matches against qualifier Carson Branstine and Czech Marie Bouzkova, while Raducanu has gone to the other end of the alphabet, beating Mimi Xu and the 2023 Wimbledon champion, Marketa Vondrousova, in impressive fashion.
Starting quickly will be imperative for Raducanu. As Bryan Shelton (coach and father of Ben) said after his son narrowly lost the first set against Carlos Alcaraz at Roland-Garros this year, the start is crucial against the top players, who, once they have the lead, play more freely and, as a result, play better.
The partisan crowd could be the ‘X-factor’ for the Brit – a fast start would get the fans behind her and increase the pressure on her opponent. Sabalenka might become ruffled and lose focus.
The top seed is wary of what she’s up against. "Emma is playing much better tennis since last year, I have to say," Sabalenka said. "She improved. You can see that she's getting back on track. Also facing British at Wimbledon, I'm not sure I prefer that. But she's playing great tennis."
Sabalenka is an aggressive baseliner, who has put a lot of time and effort into becoming a more complete player. She plays more drop shots and slices than ever before, but that part of her game does not match her huge ground-strokes. Raducanu needs to avoid trying to fight fire with fire. She will need to mix things up as much as possible. Not easy though, when the ball is travelling at 90mph.
This year, Sabalenka has been winning three-quarters of her service games, a much higher percentage than Raducanu (63 per cent). So landing a lot of first serves will be essential – and they must be placed within a few inches of the lines, or right at Sabalenka’s body. You don’t want to be serving into the 27-year-old’s strike zone.
Sabalenka, who has won three titles this year as well as being beaten in the finals at both the Australian Open and at Roland-Garros, has been winning more than 60 per cent of second serve return points, compared with 40 per cent for first serves. So Raducanu must keep her first serve percentage nice and high. More than 70 would be preferable – Raducanu’s average this year is 64 per cent, which by current reckoning probably wouldn't be enough.
The next ‘must’ is ball three. After landing a well-placed serve, Raducanu will need to get on the front foot and execute her next shot deep and, if possible, into one of the corners. Sabalenka has become an extremely good mover thanks to her performance coach Jason Stacy (main picture), but that’s where top players can be exposed, even ones as good as Sabalenka.
After beating Vondrousova, Raducanu said of her next opponent: "I know it's going to be a massive challenge. I'm going to have to play some really good tennis." She also addressed the thought of having a ‘bad draw’. "As to it being unlucky, you want to play the best. You are going to have to play them at some point if you want to win one of these tournaments. Even though it's early, I'm looking forward to the opportunity."
An opportunity, yes, but does Raducanu really have belief that she can beat the world No.1? This is the final part of the puzzle.
She has got the better of three top 10 players in her career – Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari on grass in 2024, and Emma Navarro on hard courts earlier this year.
But she has never beaten a No.1 in three attempts – all against Iga Swiatek, and all straight set defeats. The former US Open champion was also beaten for the loss of just one game by Swiatek at this year’s Australian Open and for three games at Roland-Garros, and on both occasions never really looked as if she believed she could win.
But it's not Swiatek this time. On Friday, she has to back up the talk, walk the walk, and produce that really good tennis. And she’ll have the backing of a fervent home support to help her do it.